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PurposeThis paper aims to identify key factors for a contextualised Systemic Risk Governance (SRG) framework and subsequently explore how systemic risks can be managed and how local institutional mechanisms can be tweaked to deal with the complex Indonesian risk landscape.Design/methodology/approachUsing a case study from Palu triple-disasters in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, the authors demonstrate how inland earthquakes in 2018 created cascading secondary hazards, namely tsunamis, liquefactions and landslides, caused unprecedented disasters for the communities and the nation. A qualitative analysis was conducted using the data collected through a long-term observation since 2002.FindingsThe authors argue that Indonesia has yet to incorporate an SRG approach in its responses to the Palu triple-disasters. Political will is required to adopt more appropriate risk governance modes that promote the systemic risk paradigm. Change needs to occur incrementally through hybrid governance arrangements ranging from formal/informal methods to self- and horizontal and vertical modes of governance deemed more realistic and feasible. The authors recommend that this be done by focusing on productive transition and local transformation.Originality/valueThere is growing awareness and recognition of the importance of systemic and cascading risks in disaster risk studies. However, there are still gaps between research, policy and practice. The current progress of disaster risk governance is not sufficient to achieve the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030) unless there is an effective governing system in place at the local level that allow actors and institutions to simultaneously manage the interplays of multi-hazards, multi-temporal, multi-dimensions of vulnerabilities and residual risks. This paper contributes to these knowledge gaps.
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The earthquake disaster has an impact on tourist visit intention. This study aims to investigate tourist behavior in the post-earthquake disaster linkage between information sources (word of mouth and electronic word of mouth) and risk perception toward tourists' visit intentions to a destination in Indonesia. This study applies the SOR theory to predict tourists' behavior in the destination aftermath. The Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model was used to examine the hypothesis of the study. The result found that information sources (electronic word of mouth and word of mouth) significantly influenced visit intention in the time of post-earthquake disaster. The risk perception has not significantly influenced visit intention in post-earthquake disasters. The discussion and conclusion of the study are discussed herein. Overall, the findings of the study may contribute to the theory by adding information sources to predict tourist behavior post-earthquake disaster and also gives a practical contribution to the tourism sector, stakeholders, tourism marketers, and policymakers in Indonesia to enhance the marketing strategy by considering destination promotion through word of mouth (offline) and electronic word of mouth (online) and its mechanism on tourists' travel decision in the time of aftermath.
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The 2022 (M 6.8) Luding earthquake on the Xianshuihe Fault Zone (XFZ) caused severe casualties and property losses, and surface deformation and damage of which is crucial for studying the earthquake hazard assessment. However, few intensive scientific understanding has obtained to date because of widespread coronavirus transmission, strong vegetation coverage, and post-earthquake paralyzed traffic. By integrating high-resolution satellite images, large-scale geomorphic mapping, and UAV surveys, we constrain coseismic fractures and ruptures along an NW-SE-trending surface deformation zone, with discontinuous geomorphic scarps, en echelon cracks, and bulges concentrated in the areas of Yanzigou, Moxi, Menghugang, and Xingfu villages near the epicenter. Field observation also shows that the zone extends nearly parallel to the pre-existing XFZ with a length of ∼35 km with variable widths and a maximum vertical displacement of ∼100 ± 10 cm. The earthquake-induced surface coseismic effects, such as landslides, rock falls, and collapses, caused damage to the area. The amplification effect of the topography and the improper aseismic design and poor constructions may be responsible for the spatial distribution of MM Intensity IX, which is larger than other previous earthquakes that occurred in the surrounding area with a similar tectonic setting.
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What is the evidence for a consensus among the relevant scientific community? [...]if the source proves credible, ask yourself, "Do they exhibit relevant expertise?" Namely, does the person have the depth of knowledge to vouch for this claim? [...]if you have a credible and expert source, is there evidence that the majority of scientists concur? (Time will vary depending on the depth and complexity of the issue.) Possible scientific claims for students to evaluate include * Do cell phones or 5G communication towers cause cancer? * Can ivermectin prevent COVID-19? * Can earthquakes be precisely predicted? * Are GMO foods safe to eat? * Are recent extreme weather events (hurricanes, droughts, floods) related to climate change? *
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One would expect a wildfire exploration in a region prone to wildfires to begin close to home, not Australia, but that is where it started. Lowry teaches preK in a constructivist school in an area prone to wildfires, earthquakes, winds, and floods. One of her students went back to visit relatives in Australia during the winter of the 2019-2020 school year, immediately before the initial COVID-19 quarantine. They emailed the student regularly and heard about the intense heat where he was visiting. They looked up Australia in the news and saw images of the wildfires. After a little work comparing Australia and their area, one of the students said, "This could happen here! We HAVE to do something!"
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The sediments underneath Mexico City have unique mechanical properties that give rise to strong site effects. We investigated temporal changes in the seismic velocity at strong-motion and broadband seismic stations throughout Mexico City, including sites with different geologic characteristics ranging from city center locations situated on lacustrine clay to hillside locations on volcanic bedrock. We used autocorrelations of urban seismic noise, enhanced by waveform clustering, to extract subtle seismic velocity changes by coda wave interferometry. We observed and modeled seasonal, co- and post-seismic changes, as well as a long-term linear trend in seismic velocity. Seasonal variations can be explained by self-consistent models of thermoelastic and poroelastic changes in the subsurface shear wave velocity. Overall, sites on lacustrine clay-rich sediments appear to be more sensitive to seasonal surface temperature changes, whereas sites on alluvial and volcaniclastic sediments and on bedrock are sensitive to precipitation. The 2017 Mw 7.1 Puebla and 2020 Mw 7.4 Oaxaca earthquakes both caused a clear drop in seismic velocity, followed by a time-logarithmic recovery that may still be ongoing for the 2017 event at several sites or that may remain incomplete. The slope of the linear trend in seismic velocity is correlated with the downward vertical displacement of the ground measured by interferometric synthetic aperture radar, suggesting a causative relationship and supporting earlier studies on changes in the resonance frequency of sites in the Mexico City basin due to groundwater extraction. Our findings show how sensitively shallow seismic velocity and, in consequence, site effects react to environmental, tectonic and anthropogenic processes. They also demonstrate that urban strong-motion stations provide useful data for coda wave monitoring given sufficiently high-amplitude urban seismic noise.
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The concept of tourism represents a wide field of research and development, especially considering the global dimensions it is taking. In Albania, the tourism sector has become one of the most important sectors of economic development, especially in recent years when attention has increased in the international arena. The financial and social impact has begun to be experienced, when seeing that almost all figures in the tourism components show growth. The earthquake of November 26, 2019, and especially the isolation from the COVID-19 pandemic, had a negative impact, that limited the development and investment capacities in this sector. As a result of the great opportunities that our country offers in the field of tourism, technology has played a no less important role, especially for promotion to foreigners. The standardization of services has come as a result of awareness on development opportunities, but also as a result of constant demands and models borrowed from other countries, where digital transformation also undoubtedly plays a role. Another element affected in this study is the digitalization of business in the provision method of the tourism product. Specifically, tel_Albania, as a leading company in the country, has launched the tel_Business platform, by aiming to contribute to the fulfilment of the concepts of smart tourism and e-tourism.
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This paper proposes a hybrid evaluation method to assess the prediction models for airport passenger throughput (APT). By analyzing two hundred three airports in China, five types of models are evaluated to study the applicability to different airports with various airport passenger throughput and developing conditions. The models were fitted using the historical data before 2014 and were verified by using the data from 2015–2019. The evaluating results show that the models employed for evaluating perform well in general except that there are insufficient historical data for modelling, or the APT of the airports changes abruptly owing to expansion, relocation or other kinds of external forces such as earthquakes. The more the APT of an airport is, the more suitable the models are for the airport. Particularly, there is no direct relation between the complexity and the predicting accuracy of the models. If the parameters of the models are properly set, time series models, causal models, market share methods and analogy-based methods can be utilized to predict the APT of 88% of studied airports effectively.
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Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metro Manila (MMEIRS) estimated that around 40% of the total number of residential buildings within Metro Manila will either collapse or be affected by the M7.2 generated by the West Valley Fault. Need arises to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of structures in the area to enhance the city’s resilience to seismic hazards. Rapid seismic vulnerability assessments are typically conducted by means of sidewalk surveys. However, advances in digital technologies such as Google Street View (GSV) provide the potential to do remote assessments, particularly amid mobility restrictions brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness of GSV in collecting data needed for rapid seismic vulnerability assessments through the case of buildings in the City of Manila. Six 300 m x 300 m blocks were evaluated using GSV for identifying seismic-related building parameters. Results show the ease of use of GSV in data collection on areas encompassing commercial and residential zones within the city and poses difficulty for blocks dominated by informal settlements. Among the challenges observed in formal zones include blockages in views due to fences, trees, and/or vehicles parked in front. For informal settlements, much of the buildings are not visible in GSV for evaluation thereby necessitating supplemental data collection. Overall, GSV demonstrates usefulness, and has the potential to speed up seismic vulnerability assessments in urban areas in conjunction with existing in situ assessments currently conducted.
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In spite of the significant number of studies focused on the 1755 earthquake and tsunami, there are still many unknowns regarding this event in Lisbon, Portugal. Thus, in this research the authors compiled historical documents, including some that had never been analyzed, complemented with a field survey and tsunami numerical modeling at the historical civil parish of Santo Estevão, Lisbon. It was possible to identify 13 buildings, including three religious buildings and five palaces. Furthermore, the new data showed that contradicting the general idea, the earthquake caused significant damage to the selected territory because the number of households decreased by 52%. The number of residents decreased to about 51%, and in 1756, 1041 residents were still living in 297 temporary shelters. There were more than 44 dead and 1122 residents were unaccounted for. The fire did not hit the area, and the tsunami numerical model results were validated by the historical accounts and cartography, which indicate that the coastal area of the studied area was not significantly inundated by the tsunami. The consultation of historical documents that had never been analyzed by contemporary researchers provides a breakthrough in the knowledge of the event since it allowed a very detailed analysis of the disaster impact.
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Mountain protected areas are popular tourism destinations. Those managing such landscapes and activities require data on when and where people go, but obtaining such information is difficult for large and often remote areas, particularly when resources are limited. We illustrate how geolocated images posted on social media could be used to assess tourism by analyzing geolocated images taken in the Annapurna Conservation Area in Nepal and posted to the image-sharing platform Flickr. Data from 577 visitors covering 3 major periods-pre-2007 (limited roads and Maoist insurgency), 2008-2014 (post-insurgency and better roads), and 2015-2020 (post-blizzard and earthquake)-and 4 meteorological seasons were analyzed. We found monthly patterns based on photo user days correlated with recent official visitor data. When finer resolution mapping of photo-user-hour data was visualized using heatmaps, seasonal and spatial patterns were apparent. Visitors mainly stayed on trails, roads, or in villages, with few images off trails, at high elevations, or from the remote north, while visitation was greater and more dispersed in spring and autumn compared to summer and winter. The results highlight the concentrated nature of visitation and hence opportunities to promote new destinations, events, and activities, particularly in summer and winter. They also show how roads and trails have expanded the use of the area. Although beneficial, social media has limitations, as few visitors post to social media, platforms vary in popularity and access to data, and there are increasing ethical and privacy issues with data from social media that need to be considered.
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We present a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) case study from the Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere / Franz Josef Glacier and Te Moeka o Tuawe / Fox Glacier valleys, on the west coast of the South Island, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The glacier valleys are important tourist destinations that are subject to landslide hazards. Both valleys contain actively retreating glaciers;experience high rainfall;and are proximal to the Alpine Fault, which is a major source of seismic hazard on the west coast. We considered the life safety risk from rockfalls, soil/rock avalanches, and flows that either are seismically triggered or occur aseismically. To determine the range in risk values and dominant contributing variables to the risk, we modelled nine different risk scenarios where we incrementally changed the variables used in the risk model to account for the underlying uncertainty. The scenarios represent our central estimate of the risk, e.g. neither optimistic nor conservative, through to our upper estimate of the risk. We include in these estimates the impact time-variable factors, such as a recently reactivated landslide, have had on locally increasing risk and the time-elapsed since the last major earthquake on the nearby Alpine Fault. We disaggregated our risk results to determine the dominant drivers in landslide risk, which highlighted the importance of considering dynamic time-variable risk scenarios and the changing contributions to risk from aseismic versus seismic landslides. A detailed understanding of the drivers of landslide risk in each valley is important to determine the most efficient and appropriate risk management decisions.
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Research shows that postcrisis policy change in democracies is shaped by how crises are framed. Given structural political differences, the role that such framing plays in postcrisis policy change in other types of political systems is unclear. Therefore, this study adjusts the concept of crisis framing to authoritarian China and subsequently identifies framing strategies used by national leaders in response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the Sichuan earthquake, and the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Based on qualitative thematic analysis of statements made by national leaders, this paper shows that although no framing contests existed between them, these individuals used different framing strategies in response to different crises, and each strategy corresponds with different degrees of crisis-induced policy change. We observed major policy changes when national leaders simultaneously acknowledged the crisis, admitted a malfunctioning status quo, and put forward explicit proposals for postcrisis policy changes. Conversely, we observed minor policy change when national leaders denied the significance of the crisis, blamed the crisis on external forces, or put forward no or only proposals for policy change. We argue that national leaders in China use the former strategies if they want to legitimize major policy changes and use the latter if they want to defend the status quo and restrict policy change.
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The following research article aims to study and publicize the crossing of information from seismic and transmission areas by COVID-19 for the implementation of management, coordination and attention in case of two events of such dimensions at the same time, which are directly related to the geography and geomorphology of the area, In this case, in Mexico City (CDMX), the COVID-19 pandemic, commonly known as Coronavirus, which affected the entire world and was considered a global emergency, is the central point regarding the neglect or lack of attention that the Mexican government and the general population have to these telluric episodes for attending to moments of pandemics;In past years, these natural phenomena have affected the Mexican Republic, deriving great affectations, such as the most recent and devastating seismic event for the CDMX that occurred on September 19, 2017, with a magnitude of 7.1 on the Richter scale, it is important to point out that in the midst of the pandemic in Mexico, on June 23, 2020, a phenomenon with greater characteristics than that of September 19 occurred, whose magnitude was 7.5 on the Richter scale, but fortunately much less devastating. Based on the methodology used according to research articles, theories, state of the art, newspapers, official sources, informal interviews, photointerpretation and analysis based on obtaining cartography with an adequate level to understand the problems addressed in this article regarding the geographical totality of the CDMX, areas were located based on geographical characteristics in general, taking into account the high degree of contamination by COVID-19, These were analyzed to show evidence and results of the areas that are most vulnerable in case of collapse of architectural structures by earthquakes and areas of infection based on a precise and well-founded mapping, as a preliminary conclusion alert the Mexican government and general population to take real preventive measures and not just corrective, so that the population is aware at all times of possible environmental vulnerability in which they are living to two problems that occurred at the same time as they could be earthquakes and areas of infection by COVID-19. Problemática Antes de la pandemia, inclusive días posteriores al fenómeno geomorfológico que aconteció el día 19 de septiembre del 2017, la población mexicana atendía medidas de resguardo y seguridad para tener afectaciones en menor proporción y no ser tan vulnerables ante los episodios símicos, sin embargo con la problemática de la pandemia del COVID-19 la población mexicana en general y el gobierno mexicano en sus tres niveles, olvidó que la zona donde se encuentra la Ciudad de México es una antigua cuenca, misma que por su características geográficas no es completamente apta para la urbanización, imperado las construcciones de manera irregular en muchas partes de la ciudad. En plena pandemia del COVID-19 se presentó un sismo el día 23 de junio del 2020 con características similares al sismo del 19 de septiembre del 2017, lo que hizo recordar a la población mexicana la vulnerabilidad del lugar donde se encuentra inmersa;sin embargo, al no ocurrir colapsos en estructuras y solo afectaciones menores, se tomó solo como un aviso, por ello la importancia de tomar como ejemplo al sismo del 19 de septiembre y sismos pasados.
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Despite the progress made in understanding the characteristics of earthquakes, the predictions of earthquake activity are still inevitably very uncertain, mainly because of the highly complex nature of the earthquake process. The population′s mental strength is of high importance not only to cope with an earthquake, but also to return quickly to functioning. Social-emotional preparedness for extreme adverse events and crises is a critical factor in the population’s quick recovery and return to full functioning. In the present study, we apply a multi-disciplinary lens to extend the scope of earthquake preparedness to include social-emotional programs. The goal of this study is to develop a robust “no-regret” social-emotional preparedness program (SEPP) along with methodological tools for evaluating the SEPP robustness against uncertainty in different earthquake scenarios. The research methodology is twofold. First, we develop the SEPP based on social-emotional proxies-for-robustness, and second, we apply the info-gap decision theory (IGDT) methods to assess the robustness of the SEPP in the face of uncertainty in different earthquake scenarios. The findings indicate gaps between the level of robustness of the SEPP in different scenarios. A key conclusion that emerges from this study is the need for a robust SEPP to make a significant contribution to the population’s ability to return to functioning. Such SEPP should be formulated to maximize the robustness against uncertainty in different scenarios, rather than the traditional planning based on a ‘one size fits all’ approach. Formulating a robust SEPP by analyzing the robustness of the SEPP against uncertainty will enable to make decisions immune to surprises. Ways to create or improve earthquake preparedness are suggested for policy and in-school application.
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Risk governance is mostly viewed through the lens of disaster or emergency management departments, agencies, or organizations. Visible in times of crises, risk governance is rarely seen as part of everyday public or private functions such as planning, social welfare, investments, or fiscal responsibilities. This paper emphasizes the importance of disaster risk governance in disaster risk management activities on the example of the post-disaster recovery of Croatia after a series of strong seismic events in mainland Croatia. The analysis is made based on a thorough review of national documents of Croatia and other selected countries overlapped with the national journals reporting on the situation from the affected areas. In accordance with the authors’ opinion, the necessary elements of disaster risk governance are clearly stated through the four Sendai framework priorities, and this statement is supported by the facts from the case study. Without either the political will or the enabling surrounding the disaster, risk management is next to impossible. The Croatian case study emphasizes the importance of disaster risk governance, showcasing the adaptation process for the post-disaster recovery process to start.
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Public institutions are facing natural and manmade hazards of increasing frequency and severity. While the costs of disasters can be greatly reduced when individuals prepare, successfully encouraging preparation is difficult for governments, given the low salience of such risks. We examine whether the increased salience of other types of risks can influence individual willingness to prepare for natural and manmade hazards, and whether message impact varies with recipients’ levels of trust in their source. We capitalize upon a rare policy experiment—the staged rollout of COVID-19 lockdowns in California—to assess if increases in the salience of the pandemic were associated with greater willingness to store water for earthquake-induced system outages. We find that experiences of a disaster in a different domain (public health) and higher levels of trust in message source both increase willingness to store water. This suggests that public agencies should encourage preparedness during actual emergencies, or “not let a crisis go to waste.”
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This article engages in the understanding of resilience from the perspective of socio-ecological systems (SES) and the reconstitution of events of recovery and reconstruction in the city of Talca after the 27-F earthquake in Chile, between 2010 and 2012. For such purposes, we have developed a chronological or timeline-analysis model. This methodology, which uses mostly ethnographic and participant-observation techniques to recapitulate these events, observes the interaction of social agents, elements of the built environment, government institutions, and other institutional functions of the urban domain within the socio-ecological panarchy. The results suggest that key events, such as local government institutional actions, the observation of probable property speculation events, and community agency efforts dismissal, among other factors, could alter both human and natural resilience processes. In turn, this could affect the capacity of this city, its inhabitants, and its social institutions to endure future crises, as a product of deteriorated and maladaptive resilience mechanisms, aside from the natural and geographical conditions of Chile, exposed to future earthquake events. Likewise, the partial loss of the civic environment in this historic city and weakened neighborhood networks, contrasting with the redevelopment of real estate in central areas, altogether portray considerable risks with regard to the (un)generated social mechanisms of resilience, affecting future developments. The final section focuses on discussing these findings and their relevance in integrating a coherent understanding of SES resilience in urban planning and governance practice, especially in cities or urban areas that are prone to natural risks or catastrophes.
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Seismographs record earthquakes and also record various types of noise, including anthropogenic noise. In the present study, we analyse the influence of the lockdown due to COVID-19 on the ground motion at CSIR-NGRI HYB Seismological Observatory, Hyderabad. We analyse the noise recorded a week before and after the implementation of lockdown by estimating the probability density function of seismic power spectral density and by constructing the daily spectrograms. We find that at low frequency (<1 Hz), where the noise is typically dominated by naturally occurring microseismic noise, a reduction of ~2 dB for secondary microseisms (7–3 s) and at higher frequency (1–10 Hz) a reduction of ~6 dB was observed during the lockdown period. The reduction in higher frequencies corresponding to anthropogenic noise sources led to improving the SNR (signal-to-noise ratio) by a factor of 2 which is the frequency bandwidth of the microearthquakes leading to the identification of microearthquakes with Ml around 3 from epicentral distances of 180 km.
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The surprisingly heavy social impacts were amplified by a combination of circumstances such as damage concentrated in the dense urban city center, the number of people requiring alternative accommodation and the relatively cold weather. Interdisciplinary research and training in particular in the fields of Earthquake Engineering and Seismic Risk assessment and management is crucial for improving the design of new structures, retrofitting the existing ones and efficiently respond and recover from disastrous earthquakes. The analysis is conducted on a tramway network scale to identify critical locations by performing continuous monitoring on the tramway network and risk analysis based on the distance of buildings from the track, vibration amplitude at source, and building damage. The paper presents a failure analysis of the bell tower of the church of St. Francis of Assisi on Kaptol in Zagreb subjected to seismic activity using the finite-discrete element method—FDEM.